Beating the odds: using epidemiology to pick the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner
Abstract
Aim:
To date epidemiology has been widely utilised to analyse disease and identify risk factors associated with injury. This study aimed to establish if epidemiology has the potential to be employed as a predictive model of National Hunt racing performance.
Objectives:
The purpose of the present study was to apply the principles of epidemiology to predict factors that impact on individual performance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and to strengthen the potential of epidemiology as a valid methodology for predicting racehorse performance.
Methods
Relevant factors related to racehorse performance were identified and collated via the Racingpost website for horses that had run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup from 1995 to 2010. Subsequent univariate and multivariable single-level and mixed effects logistic regression models were developed using winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup as the dependent variable.
Results
The chance of a horse winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup is increased by
1.09 times for each extra 10 percentage point increase in the percentage of starts at Cheltenham that resulted in a win. Horses that had been ridden by only one or two jockeys throughout their career were 40 times more likely to win than horses that had been ridden by three or more jockeys.
Conclusions
National Hunt racehorses that have one or two consistent jockeys throughout their racing career and have a higher course runs to win ratio at Cheltenham are predicted to perform superiorly to their peers who do not.
Potential relevance:
Epidemiology appears to be a valid tool for predicting variables that can increase the probability of superior performance for specific events and has potential to be utilised in other equine sporting fields.
Horse racing is a multimillion pound industry in Britain attracting over 6 million spectators per year (British Horse Industry Confederation, 2010) and contributing £3.7 billion to the economy (British Horse Racing Authority, 2011). The pinnacle of the National Hunt racing season in Britain and Ireland is the Cheltenham Festival, a 4-day race meeting incorporating hurdle and steeplechase races. Each race at the Festival is a test of the most highly rated jump horses of that season. Its origins date back to the early 1800s when organised horse races were reported at Nottingham Hill, Cheltenham. Racing moved to its current home of Prestbury Park in 1831, with the first Festival recorded in 1902. The 1904 meeting featured a 4 mile steeplechase, the National Hunt Chase, which evolved into the inaugural Gold Cup in 1924. The Gold Cup is widely acknowledged as the most prestigious honour and the ‘blue riband’ of jump racing, and is currently the most valuable non-handicap jump race in Britain with total prize money of £475 000 offered in 2010. The modern race has been run on the left handed ‘New Course’ at Cheltenham since 1959, and comprises a 3 mile 2½ furlong (5331 metre) Grade 1 steeplechase incorporating 22 jumping efforts.
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